Aug. 6 Poll: Christie Moves Up

Aug. 6, 2009 -- Republican challenger Chris Christie has regained his 13-point lead over incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine in New Jersey’s closely watched gubernatorial race.

A new Rasmussen Reports survey of voters in the Garden State finds Christie on top 50% to 37%. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate, and eight percent (8%) are not sure.

In early July, Christie’s lead over Corzine was down to seven points. In that poll, Christie’s lead stretched to 12-points when “leaners” were included. It now appears that those who were leaning in the challengers direction have become more firm in their decision.

Leaners are those who initially indicate no preference for either of the candidates but answer a follow-up question and say they are leaning towards a particular candidate. Currently, Christie’s lead is at 13-points both with and without leaners.

In June, just after winning the state GOP Primary, Christie led by 13 – 51% to 38%.

Eighty-four percent (84%) of Republican voters now back Christie, but only 64% of Democrats support Corzine. The GOP candidate leads 64% to 19% among voters not affiliated with either major party.

Just 37% approve of Corzine’s performance as governor, down three points from a month ago. Sixty-three percent (63%) disapprove, an increase of five in the same period. But those who strongly disapprove of the job Corzine is doing outnumber those who strongly approve by a four-to-one margin – 44% to 11%.

On a personal basis, 37% have a favorable view of Corzine, down six points from early July. Even worse news for the governor is that he is now viewed unfavorably by 62%, a 16-point jump from the previous survey.

But Christie’s numbers have suffered as well. Forty-nine percent (49%) see the GOP challenger favorably, down eight points from last month, while 42% have an unfavorable view of him, up six from the July survey.

Despite Christie’s strengthened lead, it’s important to note that a Republican has not won statewide office in New Jersey since 1997, and Democratic candidates often close strong in the fall. Corzine is expected to significantly outspend his challenger during the closing months of the campaign.

While both candidates have questioned the ethics of the other, Christie seems to be the chief beneficiary of the recent arrests of a number of New Jersey mayors and other public officials. Thirty-eight percent (38%) of New Jersey voters identify those who were arrested as primarily Democrats, while just five percent (5%) say they were mostly Republicans. Forty-two percent (42%) view them as a mix of Democrats and Republicans.

Voters also by nearly two-to one – 50% to 28% - trust Christie more to crack down on government corruption, but 20% are not sure. But this marks a seven-point fall-off for Christie in this category form the July survey. Seventy-eight percent (78%) say they have been following news reports about the corruption arrests at least somewhat closely.

Only 29% attribute New Jersey’s financial problems to government corruption. Fifty-one percent (51%) say they’re due to a failure to control government spending, and 20% are not sure.

In addition to the issue of government corruption, Christie continues to be more trusted than Corzine on taxes – 45% to 35% - and to cut government spending – 53% to 21%. In both these areas, however, Corzine has narrowed the gap somewhat over the past month.

With the new survey, Rasmussen Reports also has begun to measure the favorables for the lieutenant governor candidates. Corzine’s running mate, Loretta Weinberg, is viewed favorably by 25% and unfavorably by 27%. Kim Guandano, the Republican candidate for lieutenant governor, is seen favorably by 25% and unfavorably by 19%. Roughly half have no opinion of either woman.

President Obama’s falling national approval ratings in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential tracking Poll appear to be reflected among New Jersey voters, with just 38% now saying Obama campaigning for Corzine will help the incumbent governor. That’s a nine-point drop from early July. Twenty-two percent (22%) say Obama campaigning for the governor will hurt his chances for reelection, and 35% say it will have no impact.

Obama’s numbers in New Jersey, however, are little changed over the past month. Fifty-six percent (56%) approve of the way he’s handling his job, while 43% disapprove.